Miami Dolphins +7(6.5) & +260 @ Patriots
My upset of the week Miami not only goes into NE and covers a touchdown spread but comes away with a win. Yes, there may be slight bias in this pick but incase people forgot… Cam Newton is not Tom Brady. The Patriots come into the season with 8 players having opted out for Covid including starters Offensive tackle Marcus Cannon, Safety Patrick Chung and Linebacker Dont’a Hightower. Hightower a defensive leader who had 71 tackles with 5.5 sacks last year is clearly the second biggest loss for the Patriots after Tom Brady. Patrick Chung had 51 tackles himself this past season, the secondary in New England is still good but they take a hit there. I also feel it is worth mentioning Running back Bolden opted out as well. I know it is Sony Michel’s running back room but Bolden was great in key situations and accounted for 4 TDs last season.
Miami on the other hand had 2 Wide Receivers opt out. Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns. The two played in 13 and 14 games respectively and combined for a total 75 receptions, 767 yards and 3 TDs. This will be made up by a healthy Preston Williams coming off an 8 game rookie season where he posted 32 receptions for 428 yards with 3 touchdowns. I shouldn’t have to mention the healthy Devante Parker with 72 receptions 1202 yards and 9 touchdowns either to compliment. Bring in Mike Gesicki’s 51 receptions 570 yards and 5 touchdowns and you have a power 3 in the receiving game. Fitzmagic gets the start and this year we won’t see him lead the team in rushing. Jordan Howard comes in for the start having played 10 games last season with a stat line of 119 rushing attempts for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns and Matt Breida will back him up after playing in 13 games for San Fran having 123 rushing attempts for 623 yards and 1 touchdown. The dolphins will have 2 rookie offensive lineman in LT Austin Jackson and RG Solomon Kindley who will play a huge role in their first game which could complicate things for Miami.
As for Miami’s defense all I’d like to say for Cam is good luck in the pass game. HEALTHY Xavien Howard and Byron Jones together in the secondary is huge. Toss in rookie Igbinoghene and Cam is going to have a tough time finding open receivers. Addition of veteran Van Noy to the linebacking core to compliment Jerome Baker who had 126 tackles, 1 interception, and 1.5 sacks. Wilkins is back on the line after a good rookie year with 56 tackles and 2 sacks. Godchaux returns with 75 tackles and 2 sacks, and you bring in Lawson to help in the run game. ALSO, Ogbah from KC who had 5.5 sacks last year? I’m very excited to see this defense get to work.
I won’t lie, if I wasn’t a Dolphins fan I wouldn’t have even followed this game close enough to not just pick Patriots on the spread. However, in Brian Flores second season with a MUCH improved defense and no Tom Brady in New England I feel this is a perfect storm. Miami wins but the game stays close, a touchdown at best. 28-21 cash in, Miami +260.
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