Beard vs Mustache

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Thursday night showcases the Beard vs the Mustache. Fitzmagic vs Minshew. This game probably won’t interest many but should be an entertaining game to get us going into Week 3. Both teams are coming off very close loses as well.

Minshew Mania is alive and well in Jacksonville starting off 1-1 with one comeback win against the Colts and last week making the Titans sweat a little bit with their late surge. Minshew has 512 yards with 6 TDs and 2 INT. He has an outstanding completion percentage of 75.4%. The Dolphins pass defense thru 2 games ranks as 26th in the NFL and last week they lost star CB Byron Jones to a groin injury. The rookie 1st round pick Noah Igbinoghene was torched by Diggs all last weekend. Plenty of Diggs catches were made after burning the rookie leaving 3-4 yard separation. If D.J. Chark does play this week (limited in practice Monday and Tuesday) he brings 7 rec for 109 yards and 1 TD with him. Cole and Shenault come in combined with 17 rec for 177 yards and 3 TDs as well. This could prove to be too much for Miami specifically in the pass game. However, we really haven’t seen Jacksonville play with a lead this year throughout the game. The Jags also bring in James Robinson rookie UDFA who has played well in his first 2 games 32 rushing attempts for 164 yards and a TD. The Jags might be without Brandon Linder OG this week as he hasn’t practiced since Sunday’s game and that would be a big hit to their OL.

Fitzmagic almost brought the Dolphins with a beat up secondary to a win last week against what many consider to be the favorite in the AFC East the Buffalo Bills. After a rocky start in NE Fitzmagic has the offense looking much better and more confident. Throwing for 519 yards 2 TD 3 INT this year with a 66.2 completion percentage, he leads a much more confident offensive into Jacksonville. Gesicki has been his main target this season with 11 rec for 160 yards and a TD. Gesicki, Parker, Ford and Williams should play huge roles this week as Jacksonville’s passing defense ranks 30th in the NFL thru 2 weeks. The Dolphins run game has been below average with Gaskin surprisingly getting a majority of the carries over Breida and Howard. I mentioned Byron Jones earlier and he is doubtful this week. Xavien Howard and Shaq Lawson were both limited in practice this week and if they don’t go the Dolphins defense could really be in trouble with the very mobile Minshew.

Extra stats just to sway some people toward Jacksonville include a 62.5% 3rd down conversion rate by the Jags offense while the defense allows a 47.8% 3rd down conversion rate. Miami’s offense has a 39.1% 3rd down conversion rate with their defense hosting a 50% rate. Jacksonville has 14 penalties on the year for 121 yards while Miami has 7 for only 55 yards.

This game will probably be very sloppy, and I see it coming down to the 4th quarter where there will be Mania but it’ll be Magic that comes thru with a win. Miami takes their first win of the year giving them some confidence before Seattle comes to town.

My pick: Miami +3; Miami mL +138.

Full disclosure I’m a Dolphins fan and generally do pick them to win if I feel it could be close, but I did choose the Bills -5.5 last weekend at Miami and Miami proved me wrong.